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Depart. T&E > PD “ Modeling the niche and distribution of rare and endangered plants in the Romanian Carpathians; identifying new occurrences and rarity hotspots”

Modeling the niche and distribution of rare and endangered plants in the Romanian Carpathians; identifying new occurrences and rarity hotspots




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Project title:

 “Modeling the niche and distribution of rare and endangered plants in the Romanian Carpathians; identifying new occurrences and rarity hotspots”

Financing source: 

State budget (Public Funding - Budget of the Ministry of Research & Education)

Human Resources Research Programme - Postdoctoral research projects 
(2012 Competition; Contracting Authority: UEFISCDI)


Contract number:

Contract no. 14⁄ date 26/04/2013

Project code: 

PN-II-RU-PD-2012-3-0097

Project team:

Postdoc, project manager: dr. Stoica Ilie-Adrian, adrian.stoica@icbcluj.ro

Mentor: dr. Coldea Gheorghe, gheorghe.coldea@icbcluj.ro

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Project Summary (Project description). 

The study of rare and endangered taxa is considered of major importance, and is usually the underlying support for any conservation measures and for the declaration of nature reserves. The Carpathians have been projected as a potential area for excessive species loss in the following century, as a result of the warming climate and human impact. Alpine and subalpine plant species (“High Mountain Taxa”, HMT) are some of the most affected by climate change. The project will create a geo-referenced database with distribution data for selected rare and endangered HMT of the Romanian Carpathians. Using this data, first versions of species distribution models will be generated, and locations for new potential occurrences will be determined. The most interesting potential new occurrences will then be verified in the field, and more precise location data will be gathered. This data will be inserted in a second version of the database and new models will be generated. Rarity hotspots will be estimated, as well as their inclusion in special conservation areas from the existing National and Natural Parks. The database will be expanded, as new ideas and possibly new taxa will be investigated. The study is a starting point in the future assessment of climate change impact on HMT.


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Project implementation:

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2013 Objectives & expected results

Objective 1. Selecting rare, vulnerable and endangered HMT from the 258 identified as having a limited distribution in the Romanian Carpathians (Coldea et al 2009)
Result: first version of the list of taxa to be modelled

Objective 2. Creating a geo-referenced database with locations for the selected rare HMT, at a resolution around 0.5 km (25 ha grids, similar to the data used by Parviainen et al. 2008, 2009); documentation on their ecology and overall distribution.
Result: first version of the database

2013 Activity report

Scientific report


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2014 Objectives & expected results

Objective 1. Selecting rare, vulnerable and endangered HMT from the 258 identified as having a limited distribution in the Romanian Carpathians (Coldea et al 2009) 
Result: second version of the list of taxa to be modelled

Objective 2. Creating a geo-referenced database with locations for the selected rare HMT, at a resolution around 0.5 km (25 ha grids, similar to the data used by Parviainen et al. 2008, 2009); documentation on their ecology and overall distribution
Result: second version of the database

Objective 3. Modeling the distribution of each rare HMT using ensemble forecasting methods (BIOMOD, Thuiller et al. 2009)
Result: Species distribution models for the selected HMT in the Romanian Carpathians; 1st ISI Article published

Objective 4. Verifying the ability of the models to predict new potential locations for rare species in the field and adding new precise locations in the database after fieldwork (method described by Guisan et al. 2006)
Result: Possible finding of new occurrences for the selected rare taxa in the Romanian Carpathians

Armeria maritima subsp. alpina, on the Bucegi plateau, Stoica Ilie-Adrian 2014

2014 Activity report

Scientific report

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2015 Objectives & expected results

Objective 2. Creating a geo-referenced database with locations for the selected rare HMT, at a resolution around 0.5 km (25 ha grids, similar to the data used by Parviainen et al. 2008, 2009); documentation on their ecology and overall distribution
Result: Version 3 of the data-base

Objective 4. Verifying the ability of the models to predict new potential locations for rare species in the field and adding new precise locations in the database after fieldwork (method described by Guisan et al. 2006)
Result: Possible finding of new occurrences for the selected rare taxa in the Romanian Carpathians

Objective 5. Improving the modeled distribution of each rare HMT using the same ensemble forecasting methods (BIOMOD, Thuiller et al. 2009) on the new dataset;
Result: Improved species distribution models, 2nd ISI Article published

Objective 6. Modeling the distribution of rarity hotspots using ensemble forecasting methods (BIOMOD, Thuiller et al. 2009);
Result: A report on plant species rarity in the Romanian Carpathians and the efficacy of the current network of protected areas

Objective 7. Investigating the use of novel rarity-indicators for modeling (SQS, Williams 2000)
Result: Investigation report. Possible publication

2015 Activity report

Scientific report [will be uploaded]

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Publications

Articles Submitted to Journals in the Web of Science:


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International conferences:

 17-19th of September 2013

Poster
The 22nd international symposium „Deltas and Wetlands”, organized by Danube Delta National Institute (INDD), Tulcea, Romania

26-28th of September 2013: 
Poster, Web of Science Publication
Biogeography of the Carpathians: Evolution of Biodiversity in a spatiotemporal contex - Krakow, Poland (Botanical Institute of the Polish Academy of Science)
ISI supplement of abstracts (ISI 0.662):
Stoica I. A., Coldea G., 2013, Modeling the niche and distribution of rare and endangered plants in the Romanian Carpathians, Acta Biologica Cracoviensia, Series Botanica 55: (Suppl. 1): 66-66 - PDF

16-18th of May 2014: 
Oral Presentation
Floristic patterns at different organisation and distribution level - Cluj-Napoca, Romania (Universitatea Babeș Bolyai)


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